The 2026 Hall of Fame voting results are set to be announced on January 20th, but that doesn't mean we can't start speculating and analyzing the trends. Here's a breakdown of what we know so far, thanks to the insights provided by Ryan Thibodaux's Hall of Fame ballot tracker and Jason Sardell's projections.
Beltrán's Hall of Fame Lock
Carlos Beltrán, a 20-year veteran, is a strong contender for induction. With 89.2% of the ballots counted, he's already surpassing the 75% threshold. Sardell's simulations further solidify his case, predicting a 99.7% chance of reaching the required percentage. This puts him on track to join the 2004 Astros in the Hall of Fame Class of 2026.
Andruw Jones' Uncertain Future
Andruw Jones, in his ninth year on the ballot, has seen a significant increase in his vote percentage, rising from 33.9% to 66.2%. However, this might not be as safe as it appears. The tracker's percentage often differs from the final tally, as seen with Beltrán last year. Jones' final percentage in 2025 was 66.2%, but he could still be elected with a 78.8% vote, clearing the 75% threshold in most simulations.
Utley's Steady Progress
Chase Utley, in his third year on the ballot, is making steady progress with a 66.5% vote percentage. This is a significant jump from his 39.8% in 2025. Utley's career bWAR of 64.6 ranks him 15th among second basemen, and he has time on his side, being eligible for the next seven BBWAA ballots.
Rising Stars: Félix Hernández and Andy Pettitte
Two starting pitchers, Félix Hernández and Andy Pettitte, have seen remarkable surges. Hernández, a newcomer last year, has gained 30 new votes, putting him at 57.0% in the tracker. Pettitte, in his eighth year, has also received 14.4 percentage points more support than in 2024, making a late Hall of Fame induction possible.
First-Time Candidates' Fate
Among first-time candidates, Cole Hamels stands out with 32.3% of the votes, surpassing the 5% threshold to remain on the ballot in 2027. Other first-timers have received a combined total of eight votes, with Ryan Braun, Edwin Encarnación, Shin-Soo Choo, and Hunter Pence each getting at least one vote.
Manny Ramirez's Declining Support
Manny Ramirez, in his tenth year on the ballot, is facing a decline in support due to multiple violations of MLB's performance-enhancing drug policy. His vote percentage has hovered between 25% and 35% since 2020, and he currently sits at 41.8% in the tracker. The BBWAA's assessment of his Hall of Fame case will be final this year.
Torii Hunter's Struggle
Torii Hunter, in his sixth year, is clinging to his candidacy with 4.4% in the tracker. Last year, he finished at 5.1%, and his private ballot support might have been enough to secure his induction.
