Get ready, Melburnians! Christmas this year is shaping up to be a chilly one, potentially the coldest in two decades. But don't despair, because summer's heat is just around the corner!
For many in Melbourne, Christmas Day weather sparks a lively debate. Are you dreaming of a cozy, cool day perfect for a festive lunch, or are you longing for scorching sun and a dip in the pool? There's rarely any middle ground.
With a forecast high of just 17 degrees Celsius and the possibility of showers, this Christmas might call for pudding and custard instead of pool toys and sunbathing.
So, how unusual is a cool Christmas in Melbourne? It's safe to say this year's Christmas will be on the cooler side. If the temperature doesn't exceed 17C, it will be Melbourne's fourth-coldest Christmas Day since temperature records began in 1855. This is a stark contrast to last year's warm and sunny Christmas, which reached a high of 33C.
But here's where it gets controversial... Looking at the historical data, these kinds of temperature swings are actually quite common for Melbourne. Much like December as a whole, Christmas Day weather can be unpredictable, varying from cool to mild one year to very warm or hot the next.
The average Christmas Day temperature in Melbourne since 1855 is 25.6 degrees Celsius. However, 'average' summer weather on Christmas Day is a rarity. Consider the last 10 Christmas Days in Melbourne. Going further back, the coldest Christmas Day was in 2006, with a high of only 15.4C. There were showers, wintry hail, and even a 'white Christmas' in the alpine areas. On the other hand, Melbourne's hottest Christmas Day was in 1907, when the mercury soared to 40.7C. Interestingly, Melbourne has only had two Christmas Days above 40C since records began.
So, what can we expect for Christmas Day 2025 across Victoria? Despite the cool conditions and a moderate southerly breeze, the good news is that much of the state will enjoy a dry Christmas Day. Some areas south of the Great Dividing Range might see light showers under mostly grey skies, while the northern plains will be mostly sunny. Temperatures in the south will struggle to reach above 17C or 18C, but further north, they will climb into the 20s, peaking around 26C or 27C along the Murray River.
And this is the part most people miss... What's causing this chilly start to summer? December in Victoria is always a bit of a rollercoaster. As heat builds over the interior, it clashes with the cooler air mass over the Southern Ocean. This can result in some Decembers feeling like high summer while others resemble late spring.
Recently, the high-pressure belt usually found south of us has been further north than usual, allowing cold fronts from the Southern Ocean to bring polar air to south-east Australia. These air pulses are even colder than usual, with colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures adding extra bite to the chilly south-westerly winds. Despite these conditions, Melbourne is only slightly below average for maximum temperatures this month. Thanks to a few very hot days mixed in with the cooler weather, Melbourne's average maximum this December is 24.1C, not far off the long-term average of 24.8C.
What's the outlook after Christmas? The good news is that the cooler weather will mostly be behind us after the holiday period. While Boxing Day will remain cool, we can expect a return to warm to hot days leading up to the new year. The Bureau of Meteorology's long-term outlook suggests a 50 to 70 percent chance of above-average temperatures in the first half of January and a similar chance of drier-than-normal conditions for parts of Victoria.
So, if you're a fan of warm summer weather, embrace the jumpers and jackets this week, and look forward to enjoying the floaties and pool noodles after Christmas!
What are your thoughts on this year's Christmas weather? Do you prefer a cool or warm Christmas? Share your opinions in the comments below!
