Imagine having the VO2 max of a world-class cyclist but never stepping onto the professional stage. Could you have been a WorldTour contender? It’s a question that haunts many amateur athletes, especially now that wearable tech puts pro-level metrics right at our fingertips. But here’s where it gets controversial: just because your numbers match a pro’s, does that mean you’ve missed your calling? Let’s dive in.
Thanks to devices like power meters and fitness trackers, comparing your performance to professional athletes has never been easier. Metrics like Functional Threshold Power (FTP) and watts per kilogram (w/kg) can reveal stark differences between recreational riders and pros. But for those whose numbers align closely with the elites, it’s natural to wonder: Could I have made it? Take my own case, for instance. At 33, I have a VO2 max of 75 and a resting heart rate as low as 39—numbers that rival some pros. Yet, I’ve only ever watched the WorldTour from the sidelines. So, what’s the missing piece?
Consider Tadej Pogačar, the Slovenian phenom with a VO2 max of 89.4 and a resting heart rate of 37. At just 27, he’s already won four Tours de France, a Giro d’Italia, and multiple Monuments, drawing comparisons to Eddy Merckx, the greatest of all time. While my numbers are impressive, they pale in comparison to his. But here’s the kicker: research suggests the average VO2 max for world-class riders is around 73. So, with my above-average metrics, could I have had a shot at the WorldTour? And more importantly, can I still leverage these numbers as a competitive age-grouper?
But here’s where it gets controversial: VO2 max alone isn’t the golden ticket to pro cycling. As cycling coach Pav Bryan points out, ‘On its own, VO2 max isn’t irrelevant, but you need more information to get a bigger picture.’ Metrics like lactate thresholds (LT1 and LT2) and maximal lactate production rate (VLamax) are equally crucial. For example, WorldTour climbers often have massive FTPs and LT2s, allowing them to break away without accumulating excessive lactate. Bryan notes that pros typically have LT1 values above 300W and LT2 values above 450W, translating to 4.6W/kg and 6.9W/kg for a 65kg rider. But is raw data enough? Or is there something more to the equation?
Beyond the numbers, riding history and training structure play a pivotal role. As Bryan explains, ‘The win is finding someone with naturally high metrics and without several years of structured training experience.’ This is where scouting comes in. Organizations like British Cycling’s Talent Development Pathway start identifying potential champions as young as 12, focusing on time benchmarks, strength, bike-handling skills, and off-bike traits like commitment. But what if you’re 33 and just now realizing your potential? Is it too late?
Rob Sharman, British Cycling’s talent development team leader, emphasizes that success isn’t just about physical talent. ‘It takes a huge psychological component—resilience—to maximize your potential,’ he says. And this is the part most people miss: the jump from age-group podium to professional athlete requires more than genetics. It’s about access to the right coaching, support, and opportunities at the right time. So, could I have been a WorldTour rider? Probably not. But can I still make the most of my abilities now?
As an age-grouper, I’m at ‘an interesting age,’ according to Bryan. ‘Most people don’t realize how much potential they have with the right training,’ he says. The key is a structured plan tailored to my lifestyle—whether that means balancing threshold training with family commitments or focusing on base endurance. But here’s the real question: Are you willing to fail to succeed?
Sharman puts it bluntly: ‘The rider who succeeds the best is normally the rider who has failed the most.’ It’s about getting out there, discovering your weaknesses, and working on them relentlessly. So, while I may never grace the WorldTour podium, I can still push my limits and see how far these numbers can take me. What about you? Do you think raw metrics are enough, or is there more to becoming a pro? Let’s debate in the comments!
